The Heat Pump Revolution
The United States may be hitting a tipping point for heat pumps. In the first quarter of 2026, heat pump sales outpaced fossil-fuel furnaces by 32 percent, according to a report from the nonprofit Building Decarbonization Coalition. Over the past 15 years, heat pump sales have doubled. In 2024, 46 percent of new housing included a heat pump, compared to 47 percent that used forced-air furnaces (including both natural gas and electric versions). Heat pumps use electricity to extract warmth from wintry air and bring it inside, operating far more efficiently than gas furnaces—even in cold climates. They also double as air conditioners in summer.
Efficiency Gains
Heat pumps have a coefficient of performance (COP) of between 2 and 4, meaning they produce two to four units of heat for every unit of energy input. In contrast, resistance heating like baseboard heaters has a COP of 1, making heat pumps at least twice as efficient—and vastly more so than even the most advanced gas furnaces.
Drivers of Adoption
New housing is a major driver. Three quarters of new apartments in the US are heated electrically, and builders increasingly choose all-electric construction to avoid the cost of natural gas piping. According to Kristin George Bagdanov, associate director of research at the Building Decarbonization Coalition, “It’s kind of becoming more of a common-sense measure to only build electric, especially with these new buildings, because the appliances are also so much more efficient.” Multi-family housing represents a large opportunity: from 2010 onward in the Northwest, 18 percent of new apartment buildings featured heat pumps, according to a report from the nonprofit Sightline Institute. Overall, in 2024 heat pumps were installed in nearly half of all new housing, including single-family homes.
Market Trends
“It’s been four years in a row that there’s more heat pumps being shipped out from manufacturers than fossil-fuel furnaces,” said Kevin Carbonnier, associate director of analytics at the Building Decarbonization Coalition. “I think we are at a tipping point.” The appliances have also narrowly missed beating out air conditioning units in Q1 2026 shipments.
Future of Heating and Cooling
Utilities are experimenting with networked geothermal systems, which use liquid circulating through underground pipes to boost heat pump efficiency. Because the earth remains at roughly 50 degrees Fahrenheit even when air temperatures drop below freezing, these systems can be up to seven or eight times more efficient than gas furnaces. Such infrastructure leverages the same skillsets as gas utilities—drilling, piping, and system management—making it a viable transition for fossil-fuel workers.
Ultra-efficient systems like networked geothermal are key for decarbonization because they lower overall electricity demand. As the US electrifies more sectors, including electric vehicles, utilities need to build additional solar, wind, transmission, and battery storage; reducing heating and cooling energy consumption can lower those infrastructure costs and pass savings to ratepayers. Energy bills have exploded recently, increasing political pressure. Kristin George Bagdanov noted that consumer awareness is shifting: “Now they’re learning more about how public utility commissions set rates, how much money building out additional fossil-fuel infrastructure costs, and how a utility’s investors reap financial rewards.”