According to a growing body of research, a vast system of Atlantic currents that delivers warmth to northern Europe is at risk of collapse. The latest study to warn of its demise finds that there is at least a 10 percent chance that a collapse may already be \u201clocked in.\u201d The study, published at the E360 Digest on July 7, 2026, presents new modeling that underscores the vulnerability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).<\/p>\n
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, ferries warm water from the tropics to northern Europe. As the water cools, it becomes more dense and drops to the ocean depths, where it flows south, back toward the tropics. However, as oceans warm, those waters are not so cool, nor so dense, as they once were, causing the system of ocean circulation to slow down. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet is introducing large amounts of fresh water, which is less dense than salty water, further slowing circulation.<\/p>\n
By one estimate, if the AMOC were to collapse, its flow slowing to a near halt, temperatures in northern Europe would drop by 9 to 27 degrees F (5 to 15 degrees C). This would have severe consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, and human societies across the region.<\/p>\n
The new modeling study found that even in a scenario where global emissions peaked in 2025 and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet raises sea levels by just 2 inches this century, there is a 10 percent chance that the AMOC will eventually collapse. In scenarios where the Greenland ice sheet unleashes more meltwater, the probability of collapse rises to 23 percent, according to the study, which has not yet undergone peer review.<\/p>\n
Coauthor Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter, stated: \u201cWhat the model is saying to me is, \u2018Let\u2019s do everything in our power to get to net-zero as quickly as possible to try to keep this probability down at the 10 percent level.\u2019\u201d This highlights the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid triggering a tipping point in the climate system.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Study warns AMOC collapse may be locked in with 10% chance. Northern Europe could see temperature drops of 9-27\u00b0F, with higher risk from Greenland melt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":496,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=497"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":498,"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/497\/revisions\/498"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/test2.cryptofinancewire.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}